The Dividend “Generals” Come Marching In $GIS $GE

May 23, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

All of us are at different points in our lives.  Why, you may be a college kid, dipping your little toe into the stock market waters for the first time with your whole life in front of you—no wife, no ex-wives, no alimony, no child support(s), no murder contemplations.  Or you could be a middle-aged hardworking American with just a little way to go until you retire with all of your investments having to line up perfectly to make sure you have enough money to support your family and your constantly deteriorating health.  Whoever you are, you have to plan for YOU.

In all honesty, I’ve been adding way too much to the Risk portion of my Cash Pie lately.  While some of these dicey bets have paid off, many others have not.  I figure that as a single man who’s already gotten rich once, I don’t have to play it as safe as I used to—in laments terms, I can “afford to be risky.”

As I said, these riskier investments (oil plays, start-ups, speculative) are hit or miss.  By moving my portfolio around to add more risk like I have, I’ve missed out on a fantastic six month rally.  I’ve run the numbers (oh boy, can I run some numbers), and if I had stuck to my original plans and my balanced Cash Pie, I might be bedding the likes of Jodie Foster instead of someone like Jodi Arias.

I look at my 2013 portfolios and I see a medley of things I’ve told you to buy and things I’ve bought:  Sodastream $SODA, Advanced Micro Devices $AMD, Take Two Interactive $TTWO.  As I look at my entry points and the green surrounding all these brilliant picks, I still see a higher percentage and payload by my Stalwart Beasts, most notably General Electric $GE and General Mills $GIS.

Those Stalwart Beasts…they’re not exciting.  They just trudge along.  There’s no big news, no sexy appeal, no glitter, no glisten, no gloss, floss.  They’re just…there.  But each quarter, unlike most Risk or Growth stocks, my main Stalwart Beasts, General Mills and General Electric, pay us a dividend.

General Mills $GIS, the makers of basically every single thing you’ve ever bought and eaten have paid uninterrupted dividends with NO reductions for 114 years—you could call them a “CEREAL dividend increaser!” ZING!  The stock currently pays $.38/quarter for a total of 3.0%.

General Electric $GE, stutter-stepped during the recession and reduced their dividend but has made it a center of focus to restore it to its former glory.  The stock is now paying $.19/share per quarter for a free payment of 3.2%.

Both of the Generals are basically like mutual funds, except you have more flexibility in your holdings.  Each encompasses a giant division of our everyday lives.

In this ever changing world, it’s hard to find guarantees and promises that will hold true.  Now, I can almost guarantee you crabs or the herp if you sleep with local hookers (even if they claim they are just visiting).  I can almost promise you that you’ll come home from Vegas ($LVS, $MGM, $WYNN) with less than you started with.  I can guarantee that if you don’t study the stock market, you can lose your shirt.  So with all of those negatives, how nice and amazing is it that I can also guarantee you a GUARANTEED 3.2% or 3.0% profit each year… GUARANTEED.  Those Generals go marching on!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I encourage risk in your portfolio.  You’ll never be Cash Bauer or Mark Cuban rich if you don’t take some chances.  But when those risky things don’t pay out, it’s always nice to be diversified enough to have the “Generals” marching along, being the lifeblood of your portfolio, and reinvesting their dividend (aka FREE money) each quarter.

I’m going to rearrange things in my portfolio back to the way they should be.

That’s the best thing about me, my faithful Cash-ists.  I’m always ready to tell you when I fuck up.  I don’t see a lot of my fellow pundits doing the same.

Planet Well and You Could Make Money in Orbitz $OWW $PCLN

May 21, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

Cash Bauer is in an awful mood.  How awful?  Cash is referring to himself in the third person.

You see, right now, right this very moment, I should be flying first class to New York City for a wedding, staying two illustrious nights in a suite, and then heading to my vacation home in the Hamptons for the rest of the week.  But NO.  One of my grown adult children gets in a little legal trouble that needs urgent attention and I’m forced to both stay here in Texas AND re-evaluate my will.  I HAD TO CANCEL MY MINI-VACATION.

One of the questions I hear the most from new investors is that they want “cheap” stocks.  That doesn’t mean taking into account outstanding shares, market cap, valuations, profit to earnings, etcetera, aka, the real derivatives that determine whether a stock is “cheap” or not (NERD ALERT, am I right?!).  That means that new and uneducated investors want stocks that are under $10 (hence the allure of penny stocks).  Looking at this as a professional, this is a totally absurd method of stock selection, but every once in a while I find a diamond in the rough that meets both the “decent stock” requirement as well as the “affordable to a new investor” requirement.

So everyone’s been bullish on the airliners lately.  If you’re a newer investor, you’ve certainly heard Cramer pumping US Airways $LCC.  But I don’t like airliners—in fact, I’m proud to say I’ve owned only one in my entire investing career and that was Southwest $LUV (though many of my friends lost fortunes on the doomed American Airlines, the former $AMR).  There’s too many catalysts for these guys:  delays, fuel costs, strikes and salaries, crashes…the list goes on.  Add that to the fact that I just flat out hate flying.  Are you telling me that it’s 2013 and we still haven’t figured out how to navigate “high winds?!”  So while it’s a definite sector to invest in, know that unless they start handing out blowjobs in the sky, you won’t see any recommendation from me.

BUUUUUUT, the travel industry is a sector I love.  The everyday American is working for a reason.  They bump and grind and sluff off to work with the expectation of a reward for their families…for a vacation.  By investing in a travel booking site, I can hedge my bets with the caustic airline stocks, and spread the love amongst hotels, attractions, AND the flights.  If we’re hearing that travel is on the rise, we can realize that customers are booking their vacations through publically traded companies…after all, travel agents are a thing of the past (though a recent resurgence piqued my curiosity a while back, but that’s a tale for another time).

Since January, I’ve jet-setted around the world, using all different companies:  Priceline $PCLN, Travelzoo $TZOO, Expedia $EXPE, and Orbitz $OWW.  Through these vacations and business trips, life happens, much as it did with my emergency cancellation to the Hamptons.  My staff booked my China trip through Orbitz and when I had to make immediate changes (i.e. staying in Hong Kong extra days instead of Shanghai), Orbitz was easy to talk to, charged me minimal fees, and altered my schedule on the fly.  Today, when I literally had to cancel my flight through Orbitz today, I called 12 hours prior to my flight and was again minimally fined and offered credits for future trips.

Read up!  I do business through every travel website:  in December I went to Vegas courtesy of Priceline, I buy 2-3 local deals through Travelzoo a month and am a VIP member for their Top 20 deals, and my business goes through Orbitz.  Like America, I have no loyalty to one brand—I book and buy at whoever offers me the best price.  But lately with their lax cancellation issues and their stock price doubling in the last 6 months, I am again looking for an entry point in Orbitz, before it takes off for higher prices.  After all, Cash Bauer ALWAYS invests in what he uses and knows.

 

A Double Take on Take-Two?! $TTWO $SNE

May 15, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

The market is my full time job. I wake up extremely early, pour myself an Old Fashioned (NOT an alcoholic, just a habit), turn on CNBC, and begin to read and pour over every single piece of information I can, starting around 5:00am. This is of course if the opening morning Old Fashioned doesn’t turn into an Afternoon Nip, and then a Dinner Drunk Fest. My sole respite comes after the market closes on Friday until the rooster crows on Monday morning…unless I hit a jackpot.

You see, when I hit a jackpot (a one day stock increase of 10% or more), I pack up for the day and turn everything off. When this occurs (not IF, but WHEN), I shut everything down, and head off to walk a nature trail, interact with society, or spend time with my loved ones (basically just that one grandson I always tell you about). But if my office has been cleaned, my fridge restocked, and my phone unplugged, I will almost always head into a marathon sprint of videogaming.

I take video games very seriously, and there are a few landmark instances where I all but shut down everything I can in order to immerse myself into another world without interruption. Skyrim. Bioshock. Grand Theft Auto.

It’s been five long years since I’ve been able to erase the pangs and stresses of the day by fictitiously blowing up cars, killing hookers, and methodically completing missions involving shootings, carjackings, and killing many, many, hookers through my favorite mean: Grand Theft Auto, courtesy of Take Two $TTWO. For those of you unfamiliar with the game, the whole experience allows you to kill hookers and more.

Video game companies are extremely volatile, and there are no guarantees when it comes to innovating new products—but when a title is in its fifth incantation, and each has defined the entire direction of the company, it might be time to pay attention. Grand Theft Auto III for the Playstation 2 and Grand Theft Auto IV for the Xbox 360/Playstation 3 ($MSFT, $SNE) come to mind. Let’s take a look at the release date of these two previous titles and how the Take Two stock fared in the months surrounding it:

Grand Theft Auto III (in which you were allowed to kill hookers) was released on November 1st, 2003. Grand Theft Auto IV (the first and only Xbox 360 GTA title, in which you were allowed to solicit hookers, do your business in a rocking car, and then kill said hooker and recoup your money) was released on April 29th, 2008. Please note the red X as the day the game was released, and then the torrid route the stock price took afterwards.

In the last few years, Take Two has been a one trick pony (that’s a hooker pun, BTW). But in the last quarter, they’ve released updates to Borderlands, released Bioshock: Infinite (record breaker), and the usual sports game updates/duds. If you’re a finance guy, you’re glossing over all of this and trying to figure out what the stock will do with the impending release of the newest Grand Theft Auto on September 17th, 2013.

If it was just GTA V on the horizon, I’d be a tad bit cautious…almost as cautious as luring a hooker to my car, sweet talking her and negotiating a sweet deal, and then turning on her and killing her after the pact was complete (IN THE VIDEOGAME, GUYS). But with the addition of Bioshock:Infinite (which surpassed 3.7 million sales across both PS3 and Xbox 360 platforms) and the increased press for Grand Theft Auto (which has always been a darling), I’m buying the stock. I’m buying A LOT of the stock.

Mother’s Day Flower Power?! $FLWS

May 7, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

This may shock you, but I’m not always the most thoughtful person in the world.  I have a very busy life and a very busy job and it’s hard for me to take care of myself, let alone anyone else (hence the three divorces).  But in the end, there’s always been one very important person that deserves a special pat on the back.  I speak of my mother, who birthed me, raised me, championed me, paid for my schooling, and has been a constant cheerleader for me for the greater portion of my life, in good times and bad.  And there’s no better way to show her how special she is to me once a year by spending $19.99 on some flowers from 1-800-FLOWERS $FLWS?

I’M KIDDING!  Besides, when you live in a glamorous Assisted Living facility with every amenity paid for by your son, isn’t every day Mother’s Day?!

Buying flowers online has allowed us to accomplish the American Dream:  we look thoughtful and prepared, all while not breaking the bank and never leaving the house.  It especially helps when we order from a publically traded brand we trust.

I’m a hermit-like middle aged rich man who loves to play video games, eat, and watch TV.  So how on earth have I been inundated lately with so many mentions of 1-800-FLOWERS?  Good and smart marketing perhaps.  They advertise so profusely on TV and radio (including that fat blowhard Rush Limbaugh’s show) that their website will take almost ANY promo code you write in for a discount.  Typing “poop” let me save 15%!

Do you think it’s a coincidence they’re ringing this morning’s NASDAQ Opening Bell (5/7/13), with less than a week before Mother’s Day?  They just reported fantastic earnings from the Valentine’s Day/Easter quarter, which bodes well for flower buying in this quarter—after all, not everyone has a sweetheart, but EVERYONE HAS A MOTHER.  AboutFlowers.com lets us know that “Mother’s Day accounts for one-fourth of the floral purchases made for holidays. More than a third (38%) of adults (43% of men; 34% of women) bought flowers or plants as gifts for Mother’s Day 2012.”

Also remember that 1-800-FLOWERS doesn’t just sell flowers online.  They also have an online “Gift Shop” in which they sell several gourmet items like popcorn, chocolates, fruits, and gift baskets.  This type of diversity makes it easy for the customer to spend way more than they intended and raise the average purchase price in a few quick clicks.

But being here at Mother’s Day begs one question:  How has 1-800-FLOWERS stock fared in the past few years immediately after Mother’s Day?  Should we expect a pop or a drop, or nary a second glance?

What I see doesn’t look too promising.  One of my many arguments against being bearish for $FLWS is that we were in the worst part of the recession during the past two Mother’s Days.  While it’s important to learn from the past, I also need to look at what’s happened recently.  They had a BLOCKBUSTER quarter here in 2013 (thought it did encompass two big flower buying holidays).  Our wallets are getting looser, and the one thing that hasn’t changed over time is that Mother’s Day accounts for the majority of flower-buying.  I’m going to be a bull on this one, and I’m in at under $6.00.

Think-o Your Cinco! $DLTR $FDO $DG

May 5, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

There is nothing more exciting to me when things line up properly and I’m able to be both generous AND thrifty.  So it goes for the amazing coincidence (and BEST THING EVER) that Cinco de Mayo lands on a Sunday this year!  That means I can sell my staff a free day off in homage to their heritage, even though they already get Sunday off anyway!  BUENO!  JEFE GENEROSO!

So when I made a rare appearance at my head housekeeper Maria’s “Saturday Morning Breakout Meeting (SUPER SABADO!),” I was met with many looks of shock and awe.  There was a flurry of Spanish which I of course assumed to be translated to “He is here!  The glorious and generous One is here!”  Now, normally I get a wee bit creeped out if they look me in the eye, but today was an exception.  I announced that I expected a lot of hard work today and that if everything was finished up (including dusting my Viking-era war horns), that everyone could have the day off on Sunday for their festivities.  Just when they thought I couldn’t be any more generous, I pulled out a stack of $100 bills and gave each and every one of them one for their presumed beer and bean laden fiesta.

Amid the cheers and whoops, I walked back to my bar and filled one of my Wall Street bull tumblers with some Highland Park 30 scotch.  I sat on my leather couch and took off my zapatos, casually tossing them to the doorway to make sure one of the staff shined them before they left.  After a few sips, I really sank into the couch and my mind began to wander.  What would my Mexicans spend their bonus on?

I figured most of them would save it in their Bank of America $BAC account…kidding!  Mexicans don’t have bank accounts!  They carry cash and pay in dollars.  Hmm.  Dollars….

You can drive on the back roads in any state and come across a Family Dollar $FDO.  Despite a recent logo rebranding, constant brand new stores in the middle of nowhere, and a 1.70% dividend, it’s time to get this one out of your portfolio.  I swear this isn’t irony, but Family Dollar is a poor man’s Wal-Mart $WMT.  In a recent article by Bloomberg, Wal-Mart’s Prices Beat Dollar General in Most Categories (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-01/wal-mart-s-prices-beat-dollar-general-in-most-categories-1-.html?cmpid=yhoo), they proved that Zombie Walton is coming after these small stores.  The only advantage the dollar store has on Wal-Mart is their location, but that’s changing.  Wal-Mart has lower prices.  They are ever-evolving and their Neighborhood Market stores do what others can’t:  offer lower prices in a place where you can get ANYTHING you need.  Chips and a pizza?  Check.  Chewing gum and a Red Box rental $CSTR?  Double check.  Razor blades, duct tape, and wine?  Easy!  WAL-MART OFFERS IT ALL.

Add this to the fact that we just had an amazing stock week in which I made enough to buy a small country, Family Dollar ended the week with -1.06% while other companies thrived and hit new highs.

I don’t like shorting stocks.  I compare that to betting on the DON’T PASS line in craps and I hate every single person who does it.  You want to root for everyone to fail?!  That being said, if you DO stock corte (short stock), this may be a viable option for you.  But instead of shorting, I always prefer to find a company’s competitor and buy them instead of recommending/rooting for another company’s demise.  So during this past week, Wal-Mart $WMT, the ender of worlds and small businesses increased +.48%.  Dollar Tree $DLTR increased 1.27%.  Both pay dividends.  Both are viable options.

When we were hurting, and Joe America poked his head in these discount shops to buy some fake Girl Scout cookies and off-brand soda, many stocks were a screaming buy ($FDO, $DLTR, $DG).  But guys…jobs are on track.  GDP is on track.  Property values and housing are on track.  As Joe American pokes his head above his previously submerged mortgage (re: underwater) and gasps for the sweet air of averageness, he no longer has to walk amongst piles of garbage for sales (see Big Lots $BIG).  He no longer has to eat Cinnamon Squares Plus (Cinnamon Toast Crunch) or Delicious Circles of Grain (Cheerios)!  He can be AVERAGE again!

RECAP?

BUYS (andale arriba!):  Wal-Mart $WMT, Dollar Tree $DLTR
SELLS (aye dios mio!):  Family Dollar $FDO, Dollar General $DG, and always, Radio Shack $RSH

**My staff are all from the country of Mexico, hence my calling them “Mexicans.”  They don’t take offense to it and neither do I!

Should You Get Micro-Hard with the 720?! $MSFT $AAPL $GOOG

May 1, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

There’s a tidbit of news that may shock all of you who constantly read my blog:  I love videogames.  I know, I know—you all look at pictures of me in my element and hear my tales and think I’m hitting soirée after soirée, flirting with young women and drinking the finest of wines and eating the tastiest of elongated fried shrimp appetizers.  Yes, Gentle Reader, THIS HAPPENS.  But sometimes I love nothing more than booting up the old Xbox 360 $MSFT and losing myself in a fantastical video game (as I recently have with Bioshock: Infinite).

If you follow the market, you’ll see a cacophony of insanity with upgrades and downgrades towards Microsoft.  You’ll see a steady climb over the last month from $28 to $33 (an increase of approximately 17.8%).  Add in their 2.9% dividend (aka FREE MONEY) and all of the sudden you have a pliable investment.

If you read me regularly and you follow me on Twitter (@CashBauer) and you follow my basics in the form of the CASH PIE and the LIFE PATTY, you’ll see I have a very special designated group of which Microsoft is a factor:  THE TECH MONSTERS, of which I state 15% of your stock investments should go towards.  Granted, I don’t specify Microsoft as an immediate BUY, but I do include it amongst Google $GOOG and Apple $AAPL.

Microsoft has been in the news amidst said upgrades and downgrades of late, but what I find to be the next available catalyst to study is the rumored Xbox 720.  While we don’t know much about this amazing machine (aside that it WON’T be backwards compatible, GOOD-BYE Gamestop $GME!), we do know that technology ever marches forward.  Google will have Google Glass and Apple will have the iTV/iWatch/iCourtesan for all we know, but within this category, we can assert that we WILL MOVE FORWARD.

So my article today will focus on a very important question.  Will the Xbox 720 revolutionize gaming and propel the stock to unparalleled profits in the upcoming year?  Experts can show you their charts and analysts can give you their predictions, but wouldn’t the smartest thing to do be to check out what happened in the past?  Sure Microsoft has other irons in the fire, but what happened to the stock price in years past when they introduced their previous systems?

 

I’m going to speak candidly and with forward-looking statements.  YES, I own Microsoft.  YES, I think Microsoft is a solid investment.  But YES I think that they are due for a pull-back as of this writing.  I always invest in what I use:  I buy Xbox systems and I buy Xbox games.  Hell, I even buy Xbox Live points so that I CAN BUY A VIRTUAL CHARACTER NEW CLOTHES.  This sounds insane, BUT GAMERS EVERYWHERE ARE DOING IT.

Microsoft constantly lags behind the times, like my mother in 2013 just now buying a smart phone.  Yes, no one uses Bing.  Yes, personal computer is disappearing.  But if you listen to anything I say, know that Microsoft DOES INDEED have a research and development team.  They have things I use.  THEY HAVE THINGS I (WE) CANNOT LIVE WITHOUT.

That being said, let’s learn from what happened each time they released a new system:  things didn’t go so well…INITIALLY.  Watch the announcements.  Watch the sales and watch the charts.  If you want Microsoft to be a part of your portfolio (the TECH MONSTER portion), WAIT for a slight pullback.  These charts (PLUS the ‘sell in May and go away’ formula) show you might be able to own it much cheaper than you can now.

Remember, these charts are after the DEBUT of the actual product, which won’t be for some time.  I just wanted to give you a heads up as the announcement date draws near.  See you at the money!

Net-Flexing Your Profit Arm! $NFLX $DIS $VIA

April 24, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

The last year has been one wild and wacky ride.   I’ll never forget where I was back in October 2011 when my ailing father called me and told me he was done with Netflix $NFLX.  I asked him how the nursing home was and what Jello had been hitting the spot, and he screamed that Netflix was greedy and insensitive to the voice of the people.  He screamed they could have done a million other things like send him an email, offer him a free month or two, etc., rather than just tell him they were upping his costs.  He was livid.  From what I read online and heard from co-workers, others felt the same as him (though I valued others more, as they weren’t an 85 year old man who needed help to take a poo-poo).

Seeing the backlash from Netflix’s marketing decisions, I invested heavily in Coinstar $CSTR, as I figured that if customers left Netflix, they had to go somewhere.  People don’t just stop watching movies.  We were also in the meat of the recession and a $1.00 movie rental from a Red Box sounded a lot better than a monthly subscription that was incessantly raising their rates (per dad and other uniformed consumers).  Well, history is history.  Netflix plummeted and Coinstar skyrocketed.  But as a savvy investor, I figured that Netflix wasn’t done.

Time marched on.  As the price of the stock dropped below $100 (and then some), I watched as Netflix added more content and signed lucrative deals.  I watched as they decided to produce their own shows (House of Cards AND ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT).  I watched as Coinstar and their Red Box started showcasing movies from the Blockbuster clearance bin.  I watched as Netflix realized they had made and error and set about correcting it.

We’ve watched the stock steadily rise from $70 to above $200 over the last six months or so.  We’ve heard every imaginable theory and explanation as to why that happened (see the regular news sources).  But one nugget of information really hit me today that convinced me to hold onto the stock and not immediately sell for profit (though I did have to sell a little).  It came from an unlikely source, but a source that had credibility and that I read rather frequently:  The Onion’s AV Club.

The AV Club reported yesterday that Netflix is well aware that we’ve all been sharing our passwords.  I think half of my staff alone knows both my HBOGO login AND password!  In a time of struggle and hurting to make ends meet, we as America are both creative and lazy.  In a brilliant (let me stress, BRILLIANT) move, Netflix hasn’t blocked violators of their policy.  They haven’t shut down their service or even back-charged offenders.  No.  They have now rolled out a plan, dubbed “the family plan” (NOT the theft plan, Jew plan, poverty plan) that allows the account holder to have four separate devices working simultaneously.  That means your unemployed brother-in-law can watch his biopic, Raising Arizona.  Your ex-wife can share the subscription and watch some Real Housewives garbage, and your precious grandson can watch Thomas the Tank Engine, ALL WHILE YOU ARE WATCHING the excellent TV you’ve missed from the past 6 months, as you’ve been working and getting more rich.

Here’s the surprise ending to the movie:  Netflix thrived as a company and climbed to a stock price of around $295 even though they were laden with bad plots and unresolved cliff-hangers.  Today, April 24th, 2013, it looks to me like we have moved onto the second act.  Just like any start-up, errors were made in the past, but our hero Reed Hastings swooped in and saved the world.  Yours truly started buying the day that “ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT” was mentioned, despite the other sources of turmoil.  I think $250 is attainable.  I think $275 is attainable.  Granted, I’ll watch what happens after their Viacom $VIA deal expires (taking Comedy Central, BET, MTV, and Nickelodeon with it) and see if their exclusive Disney $DIS content makes up for all of the other losses.

UPDATE:  My dad resubscribed to Netflix, though he didn’t tell me.  He just sent me the $11.99 ‘Family Plan’ bill, just like he sends me all of his bills.

RETRACT:  Please note that I’m aware my last blog about Sea World $SEAS should have been called “SEAS Your Opportunity for Growth.”

SEA-king an IPO Investment? $SEAS $FUN $DIS

April 17, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

It is with great abandon that I decide to go on a “road trip,” as opposed to flying.  I can think of nothing worse than fighting the traffic, the bladder, and the boredom while careening down the open road, especially with my 3-year old grandson in tow.  Luckily I have made enough smart investments that allow me to hire a driver and a car so that I can slip my grandson a nip of whiskey so that he sleeps while I study the markets, yell at employees, and update my Twitter feed (KIDDING about the yelling at the employees).

If I want to take a child on a vacation, I go to DisneyWorld $DIS, hands down.  But I’m not quite the average cog of the American work machine, and with the looming SeaWorld IPO $SEAS, I figured I had a grand opportunity to both act like a middle-wager, check out the aquatic theme park,  AND do something nice for the kiddo (the ONLY grandchild I like).

Though the company has eleven locations, I opted to take the child to the San Antonio location.  This one also shares space with Aquatica, a next door water park.  As Disney has Mickey Mouse and Six Flags $SIX has the Looney Toons, SeaWorld has Sesame Street (and the never-ending merchandise that comes with it).

What I know about the Sea World IPO is probably what you know:

1)       They plan to sell 20 million shares at a range of $24 to $27 (SPOILER ALERT:  Get ready for the high end, just like every 2012/13 IPO)
2)      At those levels SeaWorld would trade at with roughly the same valuation as rival Cedar Fair $FUN (6.10% dividend) and a 13% discount to rival Six Flags $SIX (5.00% dividend).  This bullet point is info per Jim Cramer and Mad Money
3)      The big day is Friday, April 19th, 2013.

It wasn’t that long ago I wrote about Six Flags (see “A Six of Flags, Half Year to Another” www.AtTheMoney.com/six) and gave it my golden star endorsement.  Since then, the stock is up about 3.8% in just a mere month and a half and still chugging along.

At the core of any business model is customer service.  In my middle class theme park studies, I’ve never once come across the unparalleled service of Disney.  Granted, Disney is in a class all of itself and literally writes the book on how to treat a park guest.  As I have frequented our nearby Six Flags and some of their other parks, it’s clear to me the employees are just…employees.  They don’t have the spark and obligatory creepy servitude the folks at Disney do—that’s ok.  The middle class who chooses to go to these parks can’t be mad about the lack of amazing service when they don’t know what amazing service truly is.  It’s like me saying I can’t long for a 3-D interactive sex robot doll since I don’t even know that those exist yet.  I’m also not saying I need a 3-D interactive sex robot doll, but I was just trying to make a point.

So my grandson is both fascinated and terrified by sharks.  He donned a Finding Nemo $DIS shark shirt and we went from show to show.  The corridors of the park and the stores all had a healthy crowd and the ‘spectacular’ shows had audience attendance of about 60-75% (this was on a fair weathered idle Saturday).  He sat in speechless shock and awe at each show, mesmerized by the sea creatures as his Grandpa Cash Cash stared at the young female trainers in skintight body suits.

I did everything a doting grandfather could do.  I bought and wore an awful shark hat that looked like it was eating my dome.  I bought the child a stuffed Beluga whale and several themed cups and beverages.  I even downloaded the SeaWorld app onto my iPhone $AAPL so I could better chart out our adventure.  As our day winded down, we were left with one final wing of the park—the sharks and the dolphins.  We walked across the park, me eyeing the exit as we passed.  I’m good being around the middle-class, but not too good around the middle-class.  We rounded the bend and right into a sign that read “WING CLOSED FOR PRIVATE PARTY AT 6PM.”  It was 6:30p.

I love the company’s gumption that it closes down an entire wing for a private event.  That kind of stuff doesn’t go for cheap.  What I don’t love is that I was open in all avenues of communication to the park and was just finding out this news.  The child screamed and cried and demanded to see the sharks, and all would have been lost had a trio of squirrels not walked on up.  This sufficed him enough for me to scoop him up and head back to Henry and the Towncar.

Now here’s the rub:  I emailed SeaWorld customer service at 6:45pm just to ask them to find better ways to educate us on closures.  By 10am the next morning (a Sunday), I had a personalized explanation as well as complimentary passes for when we wanted to return.  With that type of service, I’m signed SEALed, and delivered into this company.  This is why I will be a buyer of SeaWorld $SEAS.

As long as we as a country aren’t up to full strength (GDP, unemployment, CPI), we will continue to find ways to save a buck.  “In good times, consumers love a bargain.  In bad times, consumers NEED a bargain.”  Six Flags and SeaWorld are definitive bargains compared to Disney.  As long as the SeaWorld IPO doesn’t go absolute bonkers on opening day (above $30), I’ll take my whale of a bargain over Six Flags and add it to the Growth section of my Cash Pie.

The Best Offense is a Good… $LMT $RTN $GD

April 10, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

With some stocks hitting not only 52-week highs but wholly new highs, you might be fearful you’ve missed the rally.  All you have to do is turn on CNBC and see which “expert” is saying it’s too late.  There’s an inevitable pullback coming!  Dow 4,000!  We can’t go on like this forever!  I love these guys because it reinforces one of my favorite things about finance:  at the end of the day, everyone is an idiot.

Earlier this year, the Miami Heat (a basketball team) went on an absolute tear, winning 27 games in a row.  Maybe it’s human nature, but just as things really got cooking (right around win 15), everyone and their brother watched on ESPN ($DIS) and started predicting when the streak would end.  Instead of living in the moment, cheering them on and celebrating their accomplishment, we tried to see when they would fail.  And yes, someone has to be right.  If after every game, I got on TV and announced that “the streak can’t last” and “it’s coming to an end soon!” eventually, I’m going to be right.  Haven’t you noticed how every radio spot or talking head “correctly called the 2008 collapse?”  Yeah right!

But like I preach, you should invest in the market if you believe in your country and believe in the companies you buy.  I’m not the guy betting on the DON’T PASS line.  I research and if I see a good deal or an opportunity, I take it!  I don’t care if the Dow is at 1,000 or 20,000—a DEAL IS A DEAL.

So what catalyst are we at today?  What news did you hear today to scare you and make you second guess yourself?  Fear of earnings?  Talk of that awful jobs number last week?  Sequestration budget and defense cuts?  How about an angry and batshit Korean man talking of launching nukes?

Whoa.  Reread that paragraph above.  Reread about the panic and the fear mongering that you’re subjected to.  There’s a total juxtaposition there and that could spell an opportunity to make some money.

The best offense is a good defense.  Earlier this year, defensive stocks like Lockheed Martin $LMT, Northrop Grumman $NOC, Raytheon $RTN and Massive Dynamic (KIDDING, I’m a Fringe fan—I mean General Dynamics $GD) took a pounding.  At the end of January, many of these stocks dropped around 5% (very, very considerable) because the sequester cuts would obviously cut spending and affect orders and profits.  Since January though, the stocks have mostly rebounded, as we have seen that the government might have been exaggerating just a tad on what all would be cut.

Here’s the yin to that yang:  if sequestration and defense cuts once again take center stage, and once again suffer a sell-off, cock your eyebrow and put some pen to some paper.  While everyone is so focused on the next big American shell game (gun control, gay rights, etc), or more sequestration defense cuts, not too many news sources have linked said cuts to the madman in North Korea WHO IS THREATENING TO TEST NUKES AND START A WAR.  I have a crazy feeling that should this Chinaman’s talk and these possible nuclear actions accelerate, we will find the money to fund whatever defensive measures we need, thereby sending those aforementioned defense stocks into new highs.  I mean, sure the Blue Angels are no longer performing at air shows any more, but sweet God, I’m ok with those sequester cuts for junk like that.  Also, I know Kim Jong-un is not a Chinese, but it sounded better in my torrid rant.

If a possible wartime also looms, you might also consider upping your holdings in silver and gold, like I mentioned last week.  Today I watched all metals climb a healthy percentage, which was quite the anomaly compared of late.  I also want to note that all of this advice is for if we are NOT nuked—if we are, currency might be teeth and bottle caps for all I know.  Everyone’s saying the test nukes are imminent, but I’m not completely “Seoul-d” on it yet.

Things to consider and plan for your upcoming investing:
Microsoft $MSFT will soon unveil the new Xbox (Related:  Sony $SNE, Gamestop $GME)
A recent blog stated that 48% of U.S. teens own an iPhone and 62% plan to buy one ($AAPL)

Buy Silver or Gold? Either Ore! $HL $SLW

April 5, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

Hear ye, hear ye!  Dost the current market trends have your head a tizzy and needing a frigid cup of mead?  Aye, there are many dangers out in ye land—roaring bears, angry small lads from the Far East, and the next terror on the horizon!

Hopefully you can decipher the above text (it’s Old English, FYI) enough to know that here in north Texas, it’s about to be my favorite time of the year—the Scarborough Fair!  It’s a 30-acre village that transports you back to the olden times and I’ve been visiting it for the past 20 years (even when I was but a poor peasant).

But things are different now!  I’ve slain the dragon of poverty and wielded the majestic sword of bulls.  Now I own many lands and fill my tubs with coin of gold!  Even my riches can’t prevent me from attending my favorite festival, as I don a chain of mail and speak the language (the actors there LOVE ME).  This year I’ll take my grandson to this other world where we can act like we aren’t local celebrities (and hopefully not be swarmed for my pocket of gold)!

Ahhh, gold.  No doubt you’ve seen WE BUY GOLD signs at every single jewelry store in your area and heard the endless onslaught of commercials on CNBC and terrestrial radio.  Everyone and their brother has been inundated with gold fever as the precious metal has climbed to an expensive $1,550 an ounce, though it’s currently the lowest it’s been in the last 10 months.

These days, we’re pummeled with such constant negativity and trained to be so fearful of our standard money making ways.   Keep your money in banks?  CYPRUS COULD HAPPEN TO US!  Money in the market?  Why, of course it’s about to CRASH!  The public is so untrustworthy of our world that we’ve now even created a whole new virtual currency—the Bitcoin (don’t get me started).

But in the end, we still love our gold.  We love thinking that if the world goes to a thousand hells, we have something to hold and to barter with.  Maybe you can’t withdraw money from an ATM, but you sure can trade a gold bar for food or weapons!  The problem for you as a new investor is that gold has already climbed to ridiculous levels and that it might be entering a bear market.  So if you want to be in precious metals, that leaves a few other options.  Of these options, I like silver the best.

Let’s take a pull back from my Cash Pie to my Life Patty:

The Life Patty encompasses how I think you and your finances can stand the test of time and weather any storm.  I posted this months ago and just recently changed the 10% from GOLD to METALS.  I think that silver is a solid investment, but I also think you have to treat it as if you’re shopping for a house.  Shop around online and at your local jewelry stores.  Look for coupons, free shipping, and chart the best times of the year to buy.  Check and double check your stores for their reputations.

If you don’t want to be like a king and sit upon a throne of physical silver, there’s a few other silver mine options you can buy through your brokerage account like Hecla $HL, Pan American Silver Corporation $PAAS, or Silver Wheaton $SLW.  I follow these stocks to chart silver’s strength.

So despite great earnings and despite a strength in housing, the media outlets grow more feverish and bearish each day, attempting to spin you into a tizzy.  IGNORE THEM.  Have a plan.  Diversify your wealth.  And if silver dips below $25/ounce, it’s time to REALLY start paying attention.  Farewell ye old friend, and I’ll see you on the morrow!

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