Don’t Let Whistleblowing Affect Your Finances! $T $VZ $FB

June 12, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

My phones have been ablaze long enough regarding the Snowden whistle blowing, with tons of clients asking if they should sell Google $GOOG, Facebook $FB, Verizon $VZ, AT&T $T, and more.  I’ve had enough interrogations that I feel I should take off my dress shoes, heft up my belt, and climb, climb, climb onto my soapbox!

I want to be alive.  This may shock you, but I never want to be on an airplane when a terrorist attacks.  I want to recline my first class seat, sip my whiskey ($BEAM), read my Kindle ($AMZN), and feel totally safe.  If that means I had to have all butt a cavity search (ZING!) at the gate, then so be it.

I have some breaking news for you:  THE GOVERNMENT SPIES ON YOU.  If it makes you rest any easier, the government has ALWAYS spied on you.  Their algorithms separate the citizens from the horrors and they’re able to quell a good many threats.

9/11.  Boston.  Think of how many attempts have been thwarted between those two incidents.  While our country may have sucked wind with mortgages, banking issues, and economy blunders over the last few years, I have never lost faith in our intelligence.  Each day, I rest my head on my goose-down pillow and don’t lose a wink of sleep that our country will be attacked because I know that we have the smartest and wiliest intelligence in the world.

If you aren’t doing anything wrong, then you have nothing to fear.  These guys aren’t listening to you tell your best friend how that “chick” you met on Craig’s List was a tranny.  These guys aren’t listening to your boring, mundane, awful life where your biggest thrill is beating the railroad arms en route to work.  NO.  The government is monitoring for awful, horrible spectacles that want to bring harm to you and your family.  Bad guys want to kill you.  They want to kill your children.  By monitoring the country, our great nation is able to avoid that.

So if you blow the whistle on your Fortune 500 company that’s secretly ripping off employees, then BLOW THAT WHISTLE.  If you run to the press when you find out that certain garments within your company are being manufactured by malnourished and under-fed retarded 4-year olds, then BLOW THAT WHISTLE.

I don’t want to be killed by a coward.  I don’t want to be killed, PERIOD.  I am very amazing and I help a lot of people (some call me heroic), and if I lose a small amount of privacy to remain safe, then so be it.  The government doesn’t need to divulge their every action.  Can you imagine if our current media covered D-Day?  Wolf Blitzer and his motley crew would be airing every detailed strike and every attempted route and we’d have a different outcome!

We’ve also become a world where we don’t exactly like to be private.  With social media, everyone wants to have their voice heard.  I know everything about a girl I went to high school with nearly 40 years ago!  WHY DO I KNOW THIS?!  Because she puts every recipe, every picture, and every check-in online for the world to see!

So if you’re offended and you don’t like this, move to China—have Facebook $FB blocked and have every Wifi connection you plug into be connected to the government or possibly hacked (as an email account of mine was when I visited a few months back).  Head to Mexico where there is no law and the government is just as corrupt as the cartel!  Go to Greece where money has no value!  There is ALWAYS AN OPTION IF YOU ARE UNHAPPY.  Or you can stay here and know that whatever is being done is for the greater good of our amazing country.

And whatever you do, don’t let one unrelated news piece affect your investment strategy and the way you look at your companies.  Keep calm and invest on.

Arco! Polo! Navigating Stock Alternatives! $ARCO $MCD

June 10, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

I recently had a local police officer contact me for help with his 457.  This type of investor is EXACTLY who I write my blog for, as they know now is the time to plan for their future.  In laments terms, this officer is a public servant, makes around $45,000 a year, and has a family and two kids.  He owns his own home and hasn’t been delinquent on any payments lately.  In the last six months, this investor received a slight bump in pay that gives him a little wiggle room to invest and he came to me.

Time and time again, the biggest stopping point I hear about putting money in the market is that the client thinks they don’t have enough to get started.  Fellow Cash-ist, you can invest with a mere $100!  The important thing is that once you jump in, you learn to study, observe, and strategize the company you choose to invest in…whether you’re investing $10,000 or $1,000.

My investor told me he had about $2,000 to start with and our conversation went a little something like this:

OFFICER:  I’m pretty sure I want to invest in a company like McDonald’s $MCD.

CASH:  Why is that?

OFFICER:  I eat there three times a week, they’re good to police (meaning they give a discount), and my kids love it.

So in this scenario, at this exact time, the officer could buy about 20 shares of McDonald’s, which is a fantastic start.  The Golden Arches offer a $.77 dividend (immediately around $60 in dividends per year) each quarter and fall into the Stalwart Beast category of my Cash Pie.  In fact, recent troubles in China even have the stock down around 5% since mid-April.  But McDonald’s is a lumbering giant that is never really going to have you sweating at the close of the bell each weekday.  There’s perfect management, smart locations, and an ever-expanding menu that adapts and overcomes.

But like I do with all of my clients, I offer other alternatives.  I threw out the success stories of Burger King $BKW and Jack in the Box $JACK and even mentioned the recent remodels and rebranding of Wendy’s $WEN.  It fell on deaf ears:  he wanted to stick with McDonald’s.

As students of the market and worldly news, we’ve followed the money the big boys are investing from China to Japan and now to Mexico.  There are some major players that think that Mexico is a new hotbed to make some major pesos.  So wouldn’t it make sense to give a looksy over to Arcos Dorados $ARCO, which is the largest operator of McDonald’s restaurants in Latin America and the world’s largest McDonald’s franchisee?

Their website and company statement claims the following:

Arcos Dorados serves 4.3 million customers at more than 1,940 Company-operated restaurants in 20 countries and territories (Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Thomas, St. Croix, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela).  The Company’s sales exceeded US$ 3.650 billion in 2011.

That’s mucho countries and mucho sales.  I explained to my client that while I would NEVER tell him not to buy the Big Mac of all stocks (McDonald’s), Arco might be a great alternative as one McNugget of a 20-pack.  It’s still the same company.  It’s still the same product.  It’s still the same vision.  But Arcos is a very specific demographic with a lower stock price than McDonald’s, in a part of the world that’s still attempting to grow.  With our scenario, the officer could buy approximately 146 shares of Arco (though he would forgo the dividend), and invest in a McDonald’s brand that’s more of a Growth market than a Stalwart Beast.

It’s not my place to tell you exactly what my client did or what I preferred him to do.  My job is to present options to you and teach you new stocks and different ways to look at the market.  A man in his 30’s is a lot more open to risk than a man in his 60’s.  One might prefer a growing company, and one might just want a constant stock with the dividend working for him.

Either way, the goal is the same:  make sure those arches you invest in are golden, not silver or bronze.

A Green, KNOT a Red Wedding? #GoT $XOXO $V

June 4, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

The Internet is abuzz with the latest turn of events in this week’s HBO’s Game of Thrones.  Us living in an age where information is disseminated instantly (and assuming you subscribe to any form of social media, be it Facebook $FB or Twitter), I hardly need to announce this blog should probably read:  SPOILER ALERT!  So let this be your chance to lend me your ear and not be a-Frey-d to take a risk with your investments!

I’ll never forget my second wedding.  My bride was a fair skinned maiden of four and forty and would be described by any passerby as “corn-fed.”  We met (pre-wealth) one innocent day on a used car lot where I was working and saying anything to meet my monthly quota by putting her in any vehicle that would contain her ($GM, $F, $TM).

What I would not have given during my very wedding than to hug a guest of my then-wife, and reveal she was wearing chain-mail or a bullet proof vest?  What would I have given to be locked inside the chapel and mercilessly slaughtered, saving me from the dread and terror of my impending 1.5 year marriage to a bitch worse than Queen Cersei herself?  Ahhh, we can dream, can’t we?

But not everyone can be spared the gift that Robb Stark and his family were.  No, some of us press on and celebrate the ritual of marriage—in fact, the homosexuals are practically clamoring for it (not that there’s anything wrong with that)!  With wedding season upon us, let’s take a look at a few stocks that will pleasey your Khaleesi!

In Roman religion, Juno was connected with all aspects of the life of women, most particularly married life.  I don’t want to make your brain explode with coincidences, but it’s now said goddess’s titular month…JUNE.  Women all across the United States are spending a seemingly endless bankroll (or maxing out credit cards $AXP, $MA, $V) to make sure they have one perfect day.  Which stocks stand out for old thrice-divorced Cash Bauer?  I guess a better question would be what stocks Arya in the market to buy at the cusp of wedding season?

My Facebook page is constantly inundated with updates from XO Group’s The Knot.  It seems that while I cannot find love, every single other one of my friends can.  The Knot offers brides planning, advice, and ways to save money, should they need it.  XO Group also owns other publicized websites such as The Bump, The Nest, and the Wedding Channel, all “promising to offer services to couples planning their weddings and future lives together.”

Last month, the stock suffered a downgrade amidst mixed Q1 earnings.  Hey, I’m ok with that.  Who the hell gets married?  Whoops, left off a sentence!  I meant, who the hell gets married in the winter?  If we chart revenues and profits, I’m sure we will see that’s a common trend.  Each fall, I’d be warning stockholders of XO Group that the wedding season of summer and fall are ending, while winter is coming.

The company has been buying back shares, which always excites me.  When I pull graphs from the last few Junes, I also see something that excites me:  three out of four upswings leading into the wedding season:

I don’t think The Knot with their medley of life sites will ever make you a millionaire, but it looks to be a decent play based on the last few years.  Volume is light, and if I see it drift anywhere near that $10 mark, I would strongly consider a proposal.  See that?  With my advice, even a Half-Man can make a full profit!

Let’s hope this Stark Market stays bullish instead of direwolfish.  Watch the peaks and the valleys so that you aren’t Robbed of all of your hard work!

Sold in May and Missed the Pay? $AMCX $DIS $WMT

May 30, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

As the end of April approached, we heard the “experts” already chanting…“Sell in May and go away…sell in May and go away…”  If you listen close enough, you can even hear the tribal drums in the background!

Oh those “experts!”  These are the same “experts” who never foresaw the crash of ’09.  These are the same “experts” who didn’t think that there was an issue with housing prices and illogical bank lending in the mid-aughts.  The same “experts” who absolutely refuse to admit when they are wrong.

Today let’s address another issue before we close out May…the belief that traders should sell their holdings in May and wait until the end of the year to reacquire them.  Because after all, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3% during the May-October period, compared with an average gain of 7.5% during the November-April period.  That’s some pretty concrete facts there, eh, Cashists?  How does that explain the incredible bull run the market has had this month as well as the 20 straight green Tuesdays?!

One of my clients literally came up to me this morning, and asked me to pull the trigger to sell his positions.

“Cash,” he said.  “I think I’ve made enough money on the mutual fund you invested my money in, and I’m ready to get out.”

I put down my sourdough pretzel and wrinkled my brow.  After all, the words “made enough money” usually don’t compute in my shiny, bald head.  But as I looked at my client, I confirmed the things that made me rich in the first place—this gentleman is living his own life.  He has his own hopes, his own dreams, and his own goals.  Yes, he invested around $6,000 about a year ago.  Yes, that $6,000 is now $8,200, an increase of around 36%.  These gains over the last few months have been LEGENDARY.  Whether I (or your broker) think there’s still room to run is insignificant.  Everyone is unique and there is a time to sell for everyone.  What is a bi-weekly payment to the liquor store for me ($2,200) is something entirely different to my client.  Each one of us is the protagonist of our own tale—meaning that I’m just an extra in the background in his.  As an advisor, I have to vow to do what I think is best for my client, as well as listen to what he has to say.

I promise this isn’t a humblebrag.  But what I have found works the best in any type of investing is to realize there is an entirely different set of circumstances behind every buy or sell.  Just because the Dow has returned a mere 0.3% since 1950 from May-October doesn’t mean that it will be that way this year.  Just because the roulette wheel hits red 10 times doesn’t mean the next spin is automatically black.  The wheel AND the market have no memory (I expect to be challenged on this).

So if you have money to invest and you have companies you like, stick your toe in.  Even if you can only afford 10 shares of something, get in.  The earlier you start this process, the quicker you will learn, and the more you can profit.  If you love Mad Men on AMC, buy $AMCX.  If you prefer Target $TGT over Wal-Mart $WMT and spend your dollars there, buy some Target shares.  Instead of using those $5 bills your Grandma Nanno sends your kids to buy them more toys ($LF), start buying shares of Disney $DIS.  Don’t listen to the market rhetoric or whatever clever catch phrase the pundits scream at you.  Pay attention to company announcements and the world around you.  Most of all, pay attention to what WORKS FOR YOU– NOT what Jim, or Rocco, or Josh, or Herb, or Mandy tells you to do.  Be your own protagonist.

Real Estate Advice- ON THE HOUSE! $PHM $KBH $TOL

May 28, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

It’s no secret that I have never been more bullish in my life than I am right now for housing.  I have watched my portfolio of properties and homes literally increase 20-30% in the last year.  I do great in the stock market, but I don’t do +30% great.  When I start talking percentages in the first paragraph, you KNOW this is going to be a nerdy numbers blog!

Getting a house (note I said HOUSE and not HOME) is still difficult.  The hoops the banks ($BAC, $C, $JPM) send you through to approve you for a mortgage is nothing short of impossible.  Yes, rates are low.  But in difficult times, many of us stretched our credit limits, missed a payment or two, and possibly took some hits to our credit scores.  So if you’re one of those people who KNOW you need to play the housing market, but don’t have the funds to dive in and start buying properties, I might have an alternative solution for you.

These days, you need 20% down to avoid the throw away PMI (private mortgage insurance) fees.  If you are desperate to get into a house (not a bad move), you can get approved with as little as 3% down with an FHA loan.  Of course, your payments might be a little higher and you’ll be subject to PMI (an absolute awful yin to the not putting down 20% yang), but you’ll at least be in the game.  After all, I ALWAYS, go back to what my father used to tell me:  “Invest in land or real estate—I’ve heard they’ve stopped making it.”

But alas, Cashist, you might not have stellar credit.  You might not have the 20% to put down.  You might not be ready to buy a home…AND THAT’S OK.  I’ve been teaching you investment strategies for 12 months now and one of my most basic and banal strategies for you has been real estate.  So let’s say you’re ALMOST ready.  How can you be prepared to buy a home in the next six months by playing the market?

The good news is that I don’t think the housing market cup has spilleth over.  I think we still have plenty of room to run.  So let’s assume you are ready to buy an average middle-American home that costs $150,000 (hopefully you’ve already jewed them down from $160K).  If you want to put 20% down, you’ll need an easy $30,000 cash.  That’s tough, my friend.  REAL tough (for you, not me), considering we’re coming out of a recession, job advancement has slightly stalled, and not everyone thinks it’s important to have CASH as a position.

But let’s say you’ve scrapped together $10,000 (do I even need to tell you that we are rounding numbers?) and you’re doing everything in your power to get your $10K (which is only 6.6%) up to $30K (your goal of 20%).

Let’s say we had this quandary six months ago, way back on December of 2012.  Let’s say you had your $10,000 and you KNEW housing was where to make your money.  Let’s say that instead of getting an FHA loan, paying PMI etc., that you decided to play the stock market.  How have housing stocks fared since then?

 

Share Amount

12/1/13

Price on

12/1/13

Price on

5/24/13

Percentage

Increase

Dollar

Increase
Toll Brothers $TOL

314

$31.84

$36.75

15.4%

$1,541
Pulte Homes $PHM

594

$16.81

$22.73

35.2%

$3,516
Lennar $LEN

262

$38.04

$42.79

12.4%

$1,244
KB Homes $KBH

696

$14.36

$23.11

60.9%

$6,090
DR Horton $DHI

513

$19.46

$25.75

32.3%

$3,226

So at absolute WORST, you could have turned $10,000 into $11,244 over 6 months.  Please note this doesn’t even take into effect dividends and reinvesting them, which a few of these stocks offer ($LEN, $KBH, $DHI).  If we average all five of these top homebuilders, we shall see an increase of about 31% over the last 6 months.  OH WAIT.  Where have we heard about approximate 30% gains?

ME.  YOU HEARD ABOUT THEM FROM ME.  I TALKED ABOUT THEM IN MY FIRST PARAGRAPH WITH MY REAL ESTATE PURCHASES OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS.  The difference is that I bought real estate because I am extremely rich and wealthy and smart, and YOU bought real estate stocks that had comparable gains.  But you invested without the credit checks, without the risk, without the high down payments.  For one glorious moment, sweet Cashist, we were the SAME.

The takeaway from this blog is whether or not you believe the market continues to chug along.  You’ve probably already missed these listed gains, and that’s ok.  I strongly, STRONGLY believe that the market is continuing.  Daily, I check Zillow $Z, talk and schmooze with my realtor beauties, and study charts from housing markets past.  Now is the time to buy…whether it’s property or housing stocks depends on your situation.

The Dividend “Generals” Come Marching In $GIS $GE

May 23, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

All of us are at different points in our lives.  Why, you may be a college kid, dipping your little toe into the stock market waters for the first time with your whole life in front of you—no wife, no ex-wives, no alimony, no child support(s), no murder contemplations.  Or you could be a middle-aged hardworking American with just a little way to go until you retire with all of your investments having to line up perfectly to make sure you have enough money to support your family and your constantly deteriorating health.  Whoever you are, you have to plan for YOU.

In all honesty, I’ve been adding way too much to the Risk portion of my Cash Pie lately.  While some of these dicey bets have paid off, many others have not.  I figure that as a single man who’s already gotten rich once, I don’t have to play it as safe as I used to—in laments terms, I can “afford to be risky.”

As I said, these riskier investments (oil plays, start-ups, speculative) are hit or miss.  By moving my portfolio around to add more risk like I have, I’ve missed out on a fantastic six month rally.  I’ve run the numbers (oh boy, can I run some numbers), and if I had stuck to my original plans and my balanced Cash Pie, I might be bedding the likes of Jodie Foster instead of someone like Jodi Arias.

I look at my 2013 portfolios and I see a medley of things I’ve told you to buy and things I’ve bought:  Sodastream $SODA, Advanced Micro Devices $AMD, Take Two Interactive $TTWO.  As I look at my entry points and the green surrounding all these brilliant picks, I still see a higher percentage and payload by my Stalwart Beasts, most notably General Electric $GE and General Mills $GIS.

Those Stalwart Beasts…they’re not exciting.  They just trudge along.  There’s no big news, no sexy appeal, no glitter, no glisten, no gloss, floss.  They’re just…there.  But each quarter, unlike most Risk or Growth stocks, my main Stalwart Beasts, General Mills and General Electric, pay us a dividend.

General Mills $GIS, the makers of basically every single thing you’ve ever bought and eaten have paid uninterrupted dividends with NO reductions for 114 years—you could call them a “CEREAL dividend increaser!” ZING!  The stock currently pays $.38/quarter for a total of 3.0%.

General Electric $GE, stutter-stepped during the recession and reduced their dividend but has made it a center of focus to restore it to its former glory.  The stock is now paying $.19/share per quarter for a free payment of 3.2%.

Both of the Generals are basically like mutual funds, except you have more flexibility in your holdings.  Each encompasses a giant division of our everyday lives.

In this ever changing world, it’s hard to find guarantees and promises that will hold true.  Now, I can almost guarantee you crabs or the herp if you sleep with local hookers (even if they claim they are just visiting).  I can almost promise you that you’ll come home from Vegas ($LVS, $MGM, $WYNN) with less than you started with.  I can guarantee that if you don’t study the stock market, you can lose your shirt.  So with all of those negatives, how nice and amazing is it that I can also guarantee you a GUARANTEED 3.2% or 3.0% profit each year… GUARANTEED.  Those Generals go marching on!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I encourage risk in your portfolio.  You’ll never be Cash Bauer or Mark Cuban rich if you don’t take some chances.  But when those risky things don’t pay out, it’s always nice to be diversified enough to have the “Generals” marching along, being the lifeblood of your portfolio, and reinvesting their dividend (aka FREE money) each quarter.

I’m going to rearrange things in my portfolio back to the way they should be.

That’s the best thing about me, my faithful Cash-ists.  I’m always ready to tell you when I fuck up.  I don’t see a lot of my fellow pundits doing the same.

Planet Well and You Could Make Money in Orbitz $OWW $PCLN

May 21, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

Cash Bauer is in an awful mood.  How awful?  Cash is referring to himself in the third person.

You see, right now, right this very moment, I should be flying first class to New York City for a wedding, staying two illustrious nights in a suite, and then heading to my vacation home in the Hamptons for the rest of the week.  But NO.  One of my grown adult children gets in a little legal trouble that needs urgent attention and I’m forced to both stay here in Texas AND re-evaluate my will.  I HAD TO CANCEL MY MINI-VACATION.

One of the questions I hear the most from new investors is that they want “cheap” stocks.  That doesn’t mean taking into account outstanding shares, market cap, valuations, profit to earnings, etcetera, aka, the real derivatives that determine whether a stock is “cheap” or not (NERD ALERT, am I right?!).  That means that new and uneducated investors want stocks that are under $10 (hence the allure of penny stocks).  Looking at this as a professional, this is a totally absurd method of stock selection, but every once in a while I find a diamond in the rough that meets both the “decent stock” requirement as well as the “affordable to a new investor” requirement.

So everyone’s been bullish on the airliners lately.  If you’re a newer investor, you’ve certainly heard Cramer pumping US Airways $LCC.  But I don’t like airliners—in fact, I’m proud to say I’ve owned only one in my entire investing career and that was Southwest $LUV (though many of my friends lost fortunes on the doomed American Airlines, the former $AMR).  There’s too many catalysts for these guys:  delays, fuel costs, strikes and salaries, crashes…the list goes on.  Add that to the fact that I just flat out hate flying.  Are you telling me that it’s 2013 and we still haven’t figured out how to navigate “high winds?!”  So while it’s a definite sector to invest in, know that unless they start handing out blowjobs in the sky, you won’t see any recommendation from me.

BUUUUUUT, the travel industry is a sector I love.  The everyday American is working for a reason.  They bump and grind and sluff off to work with the expectation of a reward for their families…for a vacation.  By investing in a travel booking site, I can hedge my bets with the caustic airline stocks, and spread the love amongst hotels, attractions, AND the flights.  If we’re hearing that travel is on the rise, we can realize that customers are booking their vacations through publically traded companies…after all, travel agents are a thing of the past (though a recent resurgence piqued my curiosity a while back, but that’s a tale for another time).

Since January, I’ve jet-setted around the world, using all different companies:  Priceline $PCLN, Travelzoo $TZOO, Expedia $EXPE, and Orbitz $OWW.  Through these vacations and business trips, life happens, much as it did with my emergency cancellation to the Hamptons.  My staff booked my China trip through Orbitz and when I had to make immediate changes (i.e. staying in Hong Kong extra days instead of Shanghai), Orbitz was easy to talk to, charged me minimal fees, and altered my schedule on the fly.  Today, when I literally had to cancel my flight through Orbitz today, I called 12 hours prior to my flight and was again minimally fined and offered credits for future trips.

Read up!  I do business through every travel website:  in December I went to Vegas courtesy of Priceline, I buy 2-3 local deals through Travelzoo a month and am a VIP member for their Top 20 deals, and my business goes through Orbitz.  Like America, I have no loyalty to one brand—I book and buy at whoever offers me the best price.  But lately with their lax cancellation issues and their stock price doubling in the last 6 months, I am again looking for an entry point in Orbitz, before it takes off for higher prices.  After all, Cash Bauer ALWAYS invests in what he uses and knows.

 

A Double Take on Take-Two?! $TTWO $SNE

May 15, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

The market is my full time job. I wake up extremely early, pour myself an Old Fashioned (NOT an alcoholic, just a habit), turn on CNBC, and begin to read and pour over every single piece of information I can, starting around 5:00am. This is of course if the opening morning Old Fashioned doesn’t turn into an Afternoon Nip, and then a Dinner Drunk Fest. My sole respite comes after the market closes on Friday until the rooster crows on Monday morning…unless I hit a jackpot.

You see, when I hit a jackpot (a one day stock increase of 10% or more), I pack up for the day and turn everything off. When this occurs (not IF, but WHEN), I shut everything down, and head off to walk a nature trail, interact with society, or spend time with my loved ones (basically just that one grandson I always tell you about). But if my office has been cleaned, my fridge restocked, and my phone unplugged, I will almost always head into a marathon sprint of videogaming.

I take video games very seriously, and there are a few landmark instances where I all but shut down everything I can in order to immerse myself into another world without interruption. Skyrim. Bioshock. Grand Theft Auto.

It’s been five long years since I’ve been able to erase the pangs and stresses of the day by fictitiously blowing up cars, killing hookers, and methodically completing missions involving shootings, carjackings, and killing many, many, hookers through my favorite mean: Grand Theft Auto, courtesy of Take Two $TTWO. For those of you unfamiliar with the game, the whole experience allows you to kill hookers and more.

Video game companies are extremely volatile, and there are no guarantees when it comes to innovating new products—but when a title is in its fifth incantation, and each has defined the entire direction of the company, it might be time to pay attention. Grand Theft Auto III for the Playstation 2 and Grand Theft Auto IV for the Xbox 360/Playstation 3 ($MSFT, $SNE) come to mind. Let’s take a look at the release date of these two previous titles and how the Take Two stock fared in the months surrounding it:

Grand Theft Auto III (in which you were allowed to kill hookers) was released on November 1st, 2003. Grand Theft Auto IV (the first and only Xbox 360 GTA title, in which you were allowed to solicit hookers, do your business in a rocking car, and then kill said hooker and recoup your money) was released on April 29th, 2008. Please note the red X as the day the game was released, and then the torrid route the stock price took afterwards.

In the last few years, Take Two has been a one trick pony (that’s a hooker pun, BTW). But in the last quarter, they’ve released updates to Borderlands, released Bioshock: Infinite (record breaker), and the usual sports game updates/duds. If you’re a finance guy, you’re glossing over all of this and trying to figure out what the stock will do with the impending release of the newest Grand Theft Auto on September 17th, 2013.

If it was just GTA V on the horizon, I’d be a tad bit cautious…almost as cautious as luring a hooker to my car, sweet talking her and negotiating a sweet deal, and then turning on her and killing her after the pact was complete (IN THE VIDEOGAME, GUYS). But with the addition of Bioshock:Infinite (which surpassed 3.7 million sales across both PS3 and Xbox 360 platforms) and the increased press for Grand Theft Auto (which has always been a darling), I’m buying the stock. I’m buying A LOT of the stock.

Mother’s Day Flower Power?! $FLWS

May 7, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

This may shock you, but I’m not always the most thoughtful person in the world.  I have a very busy life and a very busy job and it’s hard for me to take care of myself, let alone anyone else (hence the three divorces).  But in the end, there’s always been one very important person that deserves a special pat on the back.  I speak of my mother, who birthed me, raised me, championed me, paid for my schooling, and has been a constant cheerleader for me for the greater portion of my life, in good times and bad.  And there’s no better way to show her how special she is to me once a year by spending $19.99 on some flowers from 1-800-FLOWERS $FLWS?

I’M KIDDING!  Besides, when you live in a glamorous Assisted Living facility with every amenity paid for by your son, isn’t every day Mother’s Day?!

Buying flowers online has allowed us to accomplish the American Dream:  we look thoughtful and prepared, all while not breaking the bank and never leaving the house.  It especially helps when we order from a publically traded brand we trust.

I’m a hermit-like middle aged rich man who loves to play video games, eat, and watch TV.  So how on earth have I been inundated lately with so many mentions of 1-800-FLOWERS?  Good and smart marketing perhaps.  They advertise so profusely on TV and radio (including that fat blowhard Rush Limbaugh’s show) that their website will take almost ANY promo code you write in for a discount.  Typing “poop” let me save 15%!

Do you think it’s a coincidence they’re ringing this morning’s NASDAQ Opening Bell (5/7/13), with less than a week before Mother’s Day?  They just reported fantastic earnings from the Valentine’s Day/Easter quarter, which bodes well for flower buying in this quarter—after all, not everyone has a sweetheart, but EVERYONE HAS A MOTHER.  AboutFlowers.com lets us know that “Mother’s Day accounts for one-fourth of the floral purchases made for holidays. More than a third (38%) of adults (43% of men; 34% of women) bought flowers or plants as gifts for Mother’s Day 2012.”

Also remember that 1-800-FLOWERS doesn’t just sell flowers online.  They also have an online “Gift Shop” in which they sell several gourmet items like popcorn, chocolates, fruits, and gift baskets.  This type of diversity makes it easy for the customer to spend way more than they intended and raise the average purchase price in a few quick clicks.

But being here at Mother’s Day begs one question:  How has 1-800-FLOWERS stock fared in the past few years immediately after Mother’s Day?  Should we expect a pop or a drop, or nary a second glance?

What I see doesn’t look too promising.  One of my many arguments against being bearish for $FLWS is that we were in the worst part of the recession during the past two Mother’s Days.  While it’s important to learn from the past, I also need to look at what’s happened recently.  They had a BLOCKBUSTER quarter here in 2013 (thought it did encompass two big flower buying holidays).  Our wallets are getting looser, and the one thing that hasn’t changed over time is that Mother’s Day accounts for the majority of flower-buying.  I’m going to be a bull on this one, and I’m in at under $6.00.

Think-o Your Cinco! $DLTR $FDO $DG

May 5, 2013 Stock Trading No comments

There is nothing more exciting to me when things line up properly and I’m able to be both generous AND thrifty.  So it goes for the amazing coincidence (and BEST THING EVER) that Cinco de Mayo lands on a Sunday this year!  That means I can sell my staff a free day off in homage to their heritage, even though they already get Sunday off anyway!  BUENO!  JEFE GENEROSO!

So when I made a rare appearance at my head housekeeper Maria’s “Saturday Morning Breakout Meeting (SUPER SABADO!),” I was met with many looks of shock and awe.  There was a flurry of Spanish which I of course assumed to be translated to “He is here!  The glorious and generous One is here!”  Now, normally I get a wee bit creeped out if they look me in the eye, but today was an exception.  I announced that I expected a lot of hard work today and that if everything was finished up (including dusting my Viking-era war horns), that everyone could have the day off on Sunday for their festivities.  Just when they thought I couldn’t be any more generous, I pulled out a stack of $100 bills and gave each and every one of them one for their presumed beer and bean laden fiesta.

Amid the cheers and whoops, I walked back to my bar and filled one of my Wall Street bull tumblers with some Highland Park 30 scotch.  I sat on my leather couch and took off my zapatos, casually tossing them to the doorway to make sure one of the staff shined them before they left.  After a few sips, I really sank into the couch and my mind began to wander.  What would my Mexicans spend their bonus on?

I figured most of them would save it in their Bank of America $BAC account…kidding!  Mexicans don’t have bank accounts!  They carry cash and pay in dollars.  Hmm.  Dollars….

You can drive on the back roads in any state and come across a Family Dollar $FDO.  Despite a recent logo rebranding, constant brand new stores in the middle of nowhere, and a 1.70% dividend, it’s time to get this one out of your portfolio.  I swear this isn’t irony, but Family Dollar is a poor man’s Wal-Mart $WMT.  In a recent article by Bloomberg, Wal-Mart’s Prices Beat Dollar General in Most Categories (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-01/wal-mart-s-prices-beat-dollar-general-in-most-categories-1-.html?cmpid=yhoo), they proved that Zombie Walton is coming after these small stores.  The only advantage the dollar store has on Wal-Mart is their location, but that’s changing.  Wal-Mart has lower prices.  They are ever-evolving and their Neighborhood Market stores do what others can’t:  offer lower prices in a place where you can get ANYTHING you need.  Chips and a pizza?  Check.  Chewing gum and a Red Box rental $CSTR?  Double check.  Razor blades, duct tape, and wine?  Easy!  WAL-MART OFFERS IT ALL.

Add this to the fact that we just had an amazing stock week in which I made enough to buy a small country, Family Dollar ended the week with -1.06% while other companies thrived and hit new highs.

I don’t like shorting stocks.  I compare that to betting on the DON’T PASS line in craps and I hate every single person who does it.  You want to root for everyone to fail?!  That being said, if you DO stock corte (short stock), this may be a viable option for you.  But instead of shorting, I always prefer to find a company’s competitor and buy them instead of recommending/rooting for another company’s demise.  So during this past week, Wal-Mart $WMT, the ender of worlds and small businesses increased +.48%.  Dollar Tree $DLTR increased 1.27%.  Both pay dividends.  Both are viable options.

When we were hurting, and Joe America poked his head in these discount shops to buy some fake Girl Scout cookies and off-brand soda, many stocks were a screaming buy ($FDO, $DLTR, $DG).  But guys…jobs are on track.  GDP is on track.  Property values and housing are on track.  As Joe American pokes his head above his previously submerged mortgage (re: underwater) and gasps for the sweet air of averageness, he no longer has to walk amongst piles of garbage for sales (see Big Lots $BIG).  He no longer has to eat Cinnamon Squares Plus (Cinnamon Toast Crunch) or Delicious Circles of Grain (Cheerios)!  He can be AVERAGE again!

RECAP?

BUYS (andale arriba!):  Wal-Mart $WMT, Dollar Tree $DLTR
SELLS (aye dios mio!):  Family Dollar $FDO, Dollar General $DG, and always, Radio Shack $RSH

**My staff are all from the country of Mexico, hence my calling them “Mexicans.”  They don’t take offense to it and neither do I!

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